Annually one of the most difficult scoring venues on the PGA TOUR schedule, its always a good idea to reference recent Major results in Arnold Palmer Invitational week, as Scheffler foreshadowed with his 2022 victory. He didnt look great in exhibition display in Decembers The Match, but it will be interesting to see what a couple more months of rest and rehabilitation can do for his ailing Plantar Fasciitis. In 2021, we saw play suspended due to severe winds. Theres a particularly notable overlap from the three lefties in Watson, Mickelson, and Weir. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Luke List have all proven the strong correlation between both courses. That changed on Thursday. TPC Potomac stands out, with top 10 finishers at the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship featuring many perennial Riviera standouts. Consider putting: right around 8' is typically the break point on the PGA Tour for making 50% of putts. easily enough to nab his PGA Tour card for 2022/23. There are 11 players in this field who have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: McIlroy, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, and Luke List. This table shows how far the average golfer generally hits with each club when he or she makes solid contact. A recipient of the Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest University, there are some ties to The King for Willy Z. Time: 2:30-5:30 p.m. Tiger Woods became the host and face of this event since transitioning to a more prestigious Invitational designation in 2020. Golf course length of 18-hole course ranges from 6,500 to 6,900 yards which is approximately 5,900 to 6,400 meters. This may be good week to monitor U.S. Open futures if value players impress. He said he didn't think adding . So just as the Homa in California trend continues to pay dividends, Zalatoris in difficult conditions is one of the most reliable narratives in professional golf to go back to. Riviera CC is always known to keep scoring in check and reward shot makers with well-rounded skillsets from tee to green. Colt Knost and the other PGA Tour pros that called Royal Oaks Golf Club in Dallas home used to call Scottie Scheffler their little shadow. It appears your browser may be outdated. In round 4 on the par-5 12th, Furyk hit his third shot from 101 yards in the fairway to a cozy eight feet from the hole. 1 in terms of total strokes gained from tee-to-green at this event. Riviera CC is one of the most iconic venues on the PGA TOUR schedule. These firm and fast Poa greens also give players fits every year. Bet on any golfer below by clicking on the odds in the table. Similar to the back-to-back designated events in Phoenix and Los Angeles just a few weeks ago, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is next week on the Tour schedule. That has been proven here at Bay Hill with four visits to this tournament and finishes of 21st, 20th, 3rd, and 3rd. With a loaded field in store and a trend of mid-tier players beyond 25-1 odds winning this event I dont have a single player in particular Im locked in to betting this week. With all the course-fit profiles in mind, Im leaning early towards the below player pool for DFS. The hole plays 14 yards longer than the difficult par-4 12th hole and features the same scoring average of 4.3. I personally really like to see him returning to prominence and I wouldnt mind an outright win here this week either. In fact the wedge can make or break a score on a hole. The presence of these reachable par-4s and par-5s creates hidden distance in the rest of the course, which also includes three par-3s over 190 yards and six par-4s over 450 yards. With such a loaded field this week, it is seemingly more of a practice of picking which elite player is going to win. I mentioned that course form or course history, is very strong here at Bay Hill. Tony Finau can confirm. The perfect golfer for Riviera CC should be solid in Good Drives Gained + SG: OTT, Proximity: 150-200, and SG: Around the Green. The cut line has been over par at the Genesis Invitational every year over the last decade. Some notables in this weeks field among the worst in terms of total strokes gained at Riviera CC include: Kevin Kisner, Jason Day, Keith Mitchell, Tyrrell Hatton, and Gary Woodland. Only 80.4 percent of PGA Tour pros hit the green from 115 yards out in the fairway, which means that 1 in 5 miss the green altogether. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. For the week, Casey ranked 9th in driving accuracy, 6th in strokes gained off the tee and 9th in SG around the green. Fighting for pars will be crucial on a firm, wind-exposed course with just one hole outside of the three par-5s featuring a scoring average below par. Woods handed the trophy to Joaquin Niemann this time last year. Adam Woodard. On the other hand, I think theres just too much length on par-4s to lean on your typical fairway finders here. Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete API outright odds across legal U.S. sportsbooks. At Riviera CC, Im defining Comp Conditions as layouts that also feature narrow fairways, penal rough, and difficult all-around scoring. Now - bear in mind the PGA tour players are playing tough courses with pins cut tight to the edges, so from 180, they might well be aiming it 20 feet away from the hole. When Tiger Woods invites you to his invitational event with a $20 million purse on the line, its the type of event you work your schedule around. Id also adjust for course difficulty and strength of field to get a measure of corrected proximity. And so I did. Total Driving (2022-23 PGA TOUR season) Keith Mitchell 26 (15 11) Shane Lowry 45 (32 13) Scottie Scheffler 56 (28 28) Ten of the last 11 winners of this event ranked in the Top 55 on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or more yards. So how did Casey do it? That's your average yardage. We know he is an elite iron player, he ranks No. Even they will struggle to hit a high percentage of fairways with the firm conditions, undulated runoffs, and intermittent pick ups in wind. The PGA Tour returns this week after Chris Kirk was able to hold off 34-year -old longshot rookie Eric Cole in a playoff. There are 11 players who rank top-40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling Gained, and Bogey Avoidance: Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Seamus Power, JJ Spaun, Andrew Putnam, Aaron Baddeley, and Mackenzie Hughes. MLB Odds: Braves 2B Ozzie Albies A Most Hits Longshot Candidate? He then cashed in on his rising stock by taking a Saudi paycheck months later and faded to golf obscurity ever since. Former FedEx Cup champ a great long-shot bet at Bay Hill: 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, Love transfusion cocktails? As for stats to avoid,Prox 75-125andSand Saves Gainedsaw the biggest drop in importance. Hes won here before at Bay Hill back in 2016, he just finished 5th at Scottsdale three weeks ago, hes won at Quail Hollow, took 11th at Congaree back in October, and last summer, before this transition really blossomed, he made the cut and finished 55th at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship. Against a watered-down field last week, Im had the pressure of a former Honda winner, carrying the burden of tournament favorite. No. The leader, Jim Furyk, clocked in at 31 feet. There should be a clear gap in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds between the top three and the rest of the field this week. The long list of repeat performers illustrates that Course History is more sticky at Bay Hill than most other PGA TOUR courses. However, imposes one of the most stern challenges on the PGA TOUR nonetheless. The top-10 players in SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions) are Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, and Patrick Cantlay. All of a sudden, a 500-yard hole may play more like 440 yards, putting it squarely into a par 4. You can see his blue dots are clustered very tightly around the 150-yard target. Will Zalatoris is one of our expert's top picks this week. The stretching 7,466 yard, Par 72 features a set of tough par-4s, plus 3 of the par-5s measure over 555 yards. I do my practice with Trackman and I carry my 7 iron about 177-180 yards and total distance of 188-192 yards with my TaylorMade PSi irons. Like PGA National last week, penalties loom, with water hazards in play on nine holes. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years. Not many PGA Tour events these days feature 4 of rough plus green complexes that can run as firm as 12 on the stimpmeter if the elements allow. He has contributed to a variety of national and local publications, specializing in sports writing. In the two areas we pinpointed earlier, Im is 12th on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200+ yards and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. Hes 19th on Tour in Par 5 Scoring and 4th in Par 4 Scoring. How do LIV Golfs TV ratings really compare to the PGA Tour? Sand Wedge. Since 2020, Zal has delivered 17 top-10 finishes, 12 of which coming in comp difficult conditions between Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Riviera CC, Winged Foot, The Country Club, Southern Hills, Kiawah Island, Augusta National, and right here at Bay Hill. According to 2009 LPGA statistics, the average female professional's driver carries 220 yards and travels 246 total yards. The answer is that his approach play was very good, but proximity as a measure of approach play was not. Nine players in this field delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scott, Finau, Homa, McIlroy, Rahm, Thomas, Hovland, Matsuyama, and Chez Reavie. For the third straight week, par will be a good score on a majority of holes. On a calm day, Riviera presents one of the toughest challenges we see across golf. In a weighted model of Recent Total Putting, Bermuda Putting, Fast Green Putting and Arnold Palmer Invitational Putting, the top-10 includes Taylor Montgomery, Sam Burns, Beau Hossler, Andrew Putnam, Tyrrell Hatton, Ben Taylor, Thomas Detry, Tommy Fleetwood, Lucas Herbert, and Justin Rose. pga tour proximity to hole 150 yards. PGA Tour golfers are, not surprisingly, capable of hitting the ball farther than average players -- not only off the tee but also with each club in the bag. Includes Fantasy TeamBuilder Justin Thomas hits it as close as anybody on the PGA Tour. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. Proximity to the hole is measured by the average distance the ball comes to rest from the hole after the player's approach. Ball back in your stance will get you steep. How to watch the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational on Friday: Round 2 TV schedule, streaming, Is Jon Rahm now chasing Tiger Woods? As always here atTheLines, well go over an early look at the tournament, giving you what you need to know before the Genesis Invitational odds even hit the board. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). For the week, Caseys average proximity was 41 feet 11 inches. Harman ranks 21st in this field over the last 24 rounds on hard courses with long rough. John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Nearly 50% of those approaches come from between 150-200 yards. Over the last six years, only Kevin Chappell has registered four rounds in the 60s in the same API tournament. Like TPC Scottsdale, Augusta National, and Harbour Town, Bay Hill is another course in which we see course form repeat itself over time, meaning players that have done well here in the past, tend to continually do so. Hell be on my betting card assuming his odds surpass 35-1. Notable veterans who have made no more than one prior appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational include Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth. PGA Tour players of the early 21st century unquestionably hit the ball farther than throughout the 20th century. This is a example of one of my shots with 7 iron. Francesco Molinari a member at Riviera CC and top-10 finisher in this event in 2021 was also dominant in his victory at the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac. Will Zalatoris in difficult conditions. On the other hand, it can also lower your expectations! You cant simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in Distance, Approach, or Putting. Like last week at TPC Scottsdale, correlation stats at Riviera CC are fairly on par with the TOUR average. I was making an appearance on SportsGrid Radio last Sunday night, recapping the Honda Classic and looking ahead to Bay Hill. The wind at the Genesis Invitational today is absolutely insane!pic.twitter.com/TMz44EvdDq. Latest Pre-Live FanDuel Massachusetts Promo: $100 Instantly. 10 players rank above-average in each of this weeks top-10 correlated stats with success at Riviera CC. You dont need to grow out the rough or push tee boxes back to extreme lengths. 1, 2, and 3 (Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm) highlight the field this week. Ever heard of him? The PGA Tour organizes golf tournaments for amateur players throughout the world. Wrap that altogether and the top-10 players in terms of Comp Course History are Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Shane Lowry. From an Approach standpoint, Bay Hill offers a different test on second shots than were used to seeing week to week on the PGA TOUR. Touts are lame. Four of the last five winners opened at 50-1 odds or longer, so mid-range longshots make for viable bets. On paper, its a perfect fit for Rahm who can lean on all his ball-striking strengths and long-iron prowess to generate amble scoring opportunities at Bay Hill. Most amateur golfers only have a sense of their distance for full swings whereas PGA Tour and LPGA Tour pros will keep yardages for a full swing and partial . It appears your browser may be outdated. About one-third of approaches will come from beyond 200 yards, and a significant 70% of approaches will come from over 150 yards. That means a lot of Scrambling from the green-side rough and difficult bunkers. PGA Tour Average Proximity to Hole - Fairway (in yards) Nicolai Cetti Engstrm. For the best website. Tiger Woods hadn't made a start in a non-major, official PGA Tour event since the Zozo Championship in October 2020. Dustin Johnson tied for 51st among 186 players in scoring average at 70.46 shots per round. 90-110 yards. He ranked second in strokes gained/putting and made 407 feet of. Last year, severe winds intervened over the weekend, creating a chaotic conclusion in which Scottie Scheffler edged past Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland and Billy Horschel to claim his second career victory. June 12, 2022 . At 7,322 yards and par-71, Riviera's distance doesn't jump off the page. Go to the range and map out your 50%-100% distances with every club. LPGA Tour player average distances: Driver, irons, wedges Driver: 230-290 yards 3-wood: 190-260 yards 3-iron: 185-215 yards 4-iron: 170-200 yards 5-iron: 160-190 yards 6-iron: 150-175. Narrow fairways and tight doglegs make the course extremely challenging. According the Leaderboard website, PGA Tour players' average 4-iron shots travel 210 to 220 yards (including the roll). All three are strong fits for the course with proven past results and are expected to be the favorites when odds are released on Monday. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. Most of the recent difficult scoring venues like TPC Potomac, The Country Club, Southern Hills, Torrey Pines (South), Innisbrook (Copperhead), and Bay Hill should serve as strong comps to simulate the all-around tee-to-green game required to contend. Note the powerful, quiet 30v 230w motor nestling in a low profile, styled PowaFrame with the new unique Plug'n'Play 30-volt Max battery and motor system. 1 spot in my model this week. Im just saying, theres a chance he might not boat race this one! However, the defending champion but will not be in the field for his title defense after leaving the PGA TOUR behind for LIV. The Florida Swing is a cluttered stretch on the PGA TOUR schedule. Last year, the weather took a turn for the worst over the weekend, quickly becoming a scrambling contest with these greens nearly impossible to reach in regulation. With a player recovering from injury, such as Tiger Woods for example, its fair to expect play to get worse over four rounds as fatigue sets in. There are so many memorable holes at Riviera CC: Look at Viktor Hovland's line on 15. I mentioned earlier that this weeks winner will need to be excellent in two of the three areas we highlighted either off of the tee, with the irons, or with the short game. Brian Harman is the 24th ranked player in the world yet is priced more than 3.5 times longer than 35-1. Im not sure of the exact circumstance, but its not hard to find an example that illustrates the point. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill will force a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards, and features some of the thickest rough on TOUR. This is one of few PGA TOUR weeks where the absence of some of the LIV players will feel especially apparent. The average PGA Tour pitching wedge shot carried 122 yards. pic.twitter.com/FnuG8URegM. If you look at the pre-tournament odds of the last seven winners at Bay Hill, you will find that long shots are few and far between: Scottie Scheffler (16-1), Bryson DeChambeau (12-1), Tyrrell Hatton (55-1), Francesco Molinari (33-1), Rory McIlroy (20-1), Marc Leishman (100-1), Jason Day (14-1). Rivieras greens are known to be among the trickiest on the PGA TOUR to hole putts on from short range, so Ill be looking to dial in on those who are most comfortable on the crucial 5-10 footers. Quail Hollow shares the motley crew of Homa, Holmes,and Hahn. PGA Tour Average Proximity to Hole - Fairway (in yards) 29Jan 0. Lets also remember, he lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler last year at TPC Scottsdale, one of our correlated courses. Some of the bigger names in this field that check that box are Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy. He has the short game to go along with it too, ranking 19th on Tour for Scrambling and 78th in SG Putting. The bottom of. To nobodys surprise, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy rank very high for me statistically this week but with their prices so short, Ive gone a little further down the board for my selections. PGA TOUR - European Tour - 4 Most Recent Majors - Champions Tour - LPGA - Korn Ferry - Custom Performance Analysis Where Winners Come From - examine position of tournament winners per round - by player or tournament Prior Tournaments - analyize previous 4 Weeks on tour and at this weeks tournament. Lots of my shots with the 7 iron has a smash factor of 1.50-1.51. With a winning score of -12 or less in five of the last six contests, the ability to repeatedly scramble for pars is a premium skillset to bring to Bay Hill. His answer is notable, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: How to watch, TV schedule, streaming, tee times, Meet the new GOLF Top 100 Teachers of America, How to prevent golf-club damage | Fully Equipped Mailbag, Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. To receive GOLFs all-new newsletters,subscribe for free here. Paul Casey won the 2019 Valspar Championship by one stroke on a tough Innisbrook Copperhead course. In his career, he has three Top 20 finishes at Bay Hill, two Top 10s at Quail Hollow, and finished 34th in the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. In recent years, weve also seen the Genesis Invitational serve as a stage for young and burgeoning stars like Homa, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Young, and Sam Burns. He ranks 35th in this field for SG Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds and 40th in SG Off the Tee. On the same round and hole, Casey hit his second shot from 271 yards in the fairway to 98 feet. Bet with your head, not over it. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). Its been the opposite for Zalatoris since returning from injury, however, as hes shot his best round of the tournament on Sunday each time hes played four rounds in 2023. Fun fact, it will host the Olympic Mens Golf competition in 2028. A presence of long par-4s and long par-3s have shown consistent across most difficult venues. Both are difficult tests that favor distance over precision off the tee with a classical and tree-lined look, and share the Tom Fazio influence after his renovations to Riviera in the 2000s. Their full shot distances are longer. Its also his first non-Major start since the 2020 ZOZO Championship. Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete outright odds across legal U.S. sportsbooks. There are just eight players who rank top-40 in scoring from both hole ranges: Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Jason Day, and Aaron Baddeley. Riviera CC is a refreshing reminder that you can design a golf course to be challenging at just 7,300 yards. In this field over the last 36 rounds, Day is 8th in SG Ball Striking, 11th in SG Approach, and 20th in SG Putting. The Twitter handle is a joke. They can hit 5-iron shots 195 to 205 yards; 6-iron shots 180 to 190 yards; 7-iron shots 165 to 180 yards; 8-iron shots 150 to 170 yards; and 9-iron shots 140 to 155 yards. Example: You hit your 5-iron 150 yards.
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